by Alissa Tolstokorova

The current global financial crisis has its roots in a series of failures in the heart of the world’s most developed countries. As unemployment rates rose and household budgets shrank worldwide, international financial institutions, national governments, analysts and the general public were more and more concerned about the implications of the “multifaceted meltdown” on migrants, who make up a large section of the labour market in receiving countries and on the remittances they send, which make up a considerable percentage of GDP in developing countries. Kkey concerns included a rise in return migration, the prospect of rising unemployment among migrants, a possible decrease in remittances, the effects on women and the further stigmatization of migrant communities.

Yet, as was shown by an informal exchange among members of the UN-INSTRAW Virtual Discussions, some of the expected implications of the economic downturn were based more on “myths about the possible effects financial crisis on migration, than on the reality of the situation. Particularly, as was confirmed by list subscribers from around the world, migrant sending countries currently are not seeing a massive return of migrant workers as was predicted last fall, at least not from advanced economies. Migrants working and residing in developed countries are in no hurry to return home, considering it easier to face the crisis in the EU, US and other Northern societies.

Furthermore, it was expected that the economic downturn was likely to have negative consequences for undocumented circular migrants since they are overrepresented in low-skilled occupations that are typically the first victims in times of recession and are not being eligible for welfare and social benefits. Yet, this category of migrants was not as hard hit as was expected. In some cases undocumented migrants even benefited by the crisis because they are preferred by employers as a cheap labour force.

It was also envisaged that the downturn would lead to a decrease of remittances due to dwindling employment rates among migrants. Yet, given that remittances remain relatively resilient, the reduction of remittances flows was overestimated, However, patterns of remitting have changed; migrants are now more reluctant to send money through official channels due to a lack of confidence in the stability of banking systems.

Additionally, although both women and men migrants represent the most vulnerable sector of workers during economic downturn, it was predicted that women might be harder hit as they are even less protected in the labour market than their male colleagues. However, it has turned out that the crisis has affected contracted employees more than it has undocumented labourers (of whom women make up the majority).

These and other factors provide grounds to challenge the “worst-case scenarios” offered by analysts regarding the impact of the global economic recession on migration flows. This thread of the virtual community serves to act as a spring board for further discussion of the topic, initiated by UN-INSTRAW last fall, by focusing on “migration myths and metaphors” which emerged in the heart of the unfolding global economic crisis, but were not supported by later developments in the migration process.

It would be great if the VC members could share information on their respective countries and regions regarding specificities of migration process there during the crises. Since we have representatives of different continents and geographic regions, as well as of a number of inter- and transnational organizations, we could avail of the world-wide representation of our team to have a better vision of the global effects of the economic meltdown on migration and migrants.

The following are questions to stimulate reflection and discussion:

- How did the downturn affect migration patterns, and remittances flows in different regions of the world?
- What were the unpredicted implications of the economic crises for migration in both migrant sending and receiving countries?
- How were immigrants themselves affected and what “anti-crisis” strategies did they develop in response to the challenges of their precarious positions in the labour markets?
- Did the crisis affect a gender dimension of the migration process? Was there any evidence of the impact of gender on changes in remittances flows during the economic downturn?

“Trickle Down Economics” featured in the The Economist in February that may serve as an background reading is available here.

The opinion piece is also a thread in the forum. To add your comments or answer any of the questions please log in and visit the forum. 

Yet, as was shown by an informal exchange among members of the UN-INSTRAW Virtual Discussions, some of the expected implications of the economic downturn were based more on myths about the possible effects financial crisis on migration, than on the reality of the situation. Particularly, as was confirmed by list subscribers from around the world, migrant sending countries currently are not seeing a massive return of migrant workers as was predicted last fall, at least not from advanced economies. Migrants working and residing in developed countries are in no hurry to return home, considering it easier to face the crisis in the EU, US and other Northern societies.

Furthermore, it was expected that the economic downturn was likely to have negative consequences for undocumented circular migrants since they are overrepresented in low-skilled occupations that are typically the first victims in times of recession and are not being eligible for welfare and social benefits. Yet, this category of migrants was not as hard hit as was expected. In some cases undocumented migrants even benefited by the crisis because they are preferred by employers as a cheap labour force.

It was also envisaged that the downturn would lead to a decrease of remittances due to dwindling employment rates among migrants. Yet, given that remittances remain relatively resilient, the reduction of remittances flows was overestimated, However, patterns of remitting have changed; migrants are now more reluctant to send money through official channels due to a lack of confidence in the stability of banking systems.

Additionally, although both women and men migrants represent the most vulnerable sector of workers during economic downturn, it was predicted that women might be harder hit as they are even less protected in the labour market than their male colleagues. However, it has turned out that the crisis has affected contracted employees more than it has undocumented labourers (of whom women make up the majority).

These and other factors provide grounds to challenge the “worst-case scenarios” offered by analysts regarding the impact of the global economic recession on migration flows. This thread of the virtual community serves to act as a spring board for further discussion of the topic, initiated by UN-INSTRAW last fall, by focusing on “migration myths and metaphors” which emerged in the heart of the unfolding global economic crisis, but were not supported by later developments in the migration process.

It would be great if the VC members could share information on their respective countries and regions regarding specificities of migration process there during the crises. Since we have representatives of different continents and geographic regions, as well as of a number of inter- and transnational organizations, we could avail of the world-wide representation of our team to have a better vision of the global effects of the economic meltdown on migration and migrants.

The following are questions to stimulate reflection and discussion:

- How did the downturn affect migration patterns, and remittances flows in different regions of the world?
- What were the unpredicted implications of the economic crises for migration in both migrant sending and receiving countries?
- How were immigrants themselves affected and what “anti-crisis” strategies did they develop in response to the challenges of their precarious positions in the labour markets?
- Did the crisis affect a gender dimension of the migration process? Was there any evidence of the impact of gender on changes in remittances flows during the economic downturn?

“Trickle Down Economics” featured in the The Economist in February that may serve as an background reading is available here.

The opinion piece is also a thread in the forum. To add your comments or answer any of the questions please log in and visit the forum. 

Comments

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Suzy Bermudez Q. (Author) 2009-04-27 20:37:45 Alissa: encuentro muy interesantes los comentarios expuestos sin embargo señalo algunos aspectos a tener en cuenta: 1- Existen quienes Dividen la crisis en dos por ahora: el inicio de la crisis y la crisis en sí. Como tú creo que la información localizada que podamos obtener por este medio será valiosa para saber en cada país y de ser posible región como se manifiesta la Crisis en este campo que nos ocupa 2- estoy escribiendo dos escritos sobre el tema de género remesas retorno yd desarrollo y tan pronto tenga algo más claro lo compartiré para el caso de Colombia 3- En mi país ya conozco dos ´programas orientados al retorno para recibir los migrantes y darles lineamientos sobre como ingresar de nuevo al mercado de trabajo. No sé qué población real cubren. Reply | Quote 0   0

Suzy Bermudez Q. (Author) 2009-04-28 17:45:49 Alissa: I find very interesting your comments although I would like to share other information that is discussed by some of us, at least in Bogotá Colombia: 1. Some experts divide the “crisis” in two steps: The beginning of it, and the crisis nowadays. I Agree with you about the importance of localizing concrete information on the subject in each country and region, if possible. 2. I am writing two papers on gender, migration, return and development and as soon as I have something more elaborated I will share with the members of the CP 3. I know already four programs related to return migration (in Spanish I wrote 2 but they are really 4) for guiding migrants (among other aspects) on how to obtain jobs. I don´t know if many migrants have arrived Suzy Bermudez Q. Reply | Quote 1   0

Dr Alissa Tolstokorova (213.227.196.xxx) 2009-04-29 08:52:27 Thank you for your feedback, Suzy, and waiting impatiently to read your papers! As far as I know, here, in Ukraine, return programs are practiced and encouraged by the IOM office in Kyiv, but I don’t think they are popular among migrants, who largely prefer to stay in recipient countries. Regards, Alissa Reply | Quote 0   0

Migration is both internal and international charitobasa (Author) 2009-05-04 07:50:27 Hi all, I'm still looking at the gender and migration, but within national contexts. International migration has been the focus of studies, and I think internal migrants are not represented well in many analysis. How women and men internal migrants sustain their families and how they contribute to local development, what their issues are in terms of integration into new societies, their rights and welfare, etc.. I've done a study on migration and small town development that will come out soon, and unfortunately, there's been too little data that I've gathered with my team. I will be sharing the report as it comes out officially. My challenge is: that when we talk of gender, migration and development, we talk of it on a wholistic (holistic?) level, i.e., the movement of peoples whether internally (and internationally) and the consequences and impact to the persons and places where they've moved in are also development disco... Reply | Quote 0   0

JordyV (121.97.231.xxx) 2009-11-03 02:33:43 It seems these days that financial consultants probably don't know what they're talking about – it's not as if any investment analysts saw the current economic crisis coming. (Well, some did – but they were usually fired for talking about the bust of the then bubble – and the business cycle is something Econ 101 covers.) However, not all investment analysts are bad, and many of them do a great job for clients. They work hard and usually long hours, trying to make sure that their clients' investments are good long term ideas – in fact, finding the right investment analysts can help businesses and private investors alike avoid debt relief with the right investment portfolio. Reply | Quote 0   0

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