by Alissa Tolstokorova

The current global financial crisis has its roots in a series of failures in the heart of the world’s most developed countries. As unemployment rates rose and household budgets shrank worldwide, international financial institutions, national governments, analysts and the general public were more and more concerned about the implications of the “multifaceted meltdown” on migrants, who make up a large section of the labour market in receiving countries and on the remittances they send, which make up a considerable percentage of GDP in developing countries. Key concerns included a rise in return migration, the prospect of rising unemployment among migrants, a possible decrease in remittances, the effects on women and the further stigmatization of migrant communities.

Yet, as was shown by an informal exchange among members of the UN-INSTRAW Virtual Discussions, some of the expected implications of the economic downturn were based more on “myths about the possible effects financial crisis on migration, than on the reality of the situation. Particularly, as was confirmed by list subscribers from around the world, migrant sending countries currently are not seeing a massive return of migrant workers as was predicted last fall, at least not from advanced economies. Migrants working and residing in developed countries are in no hurry to return home, considering it easier to face the crisis in the EU, US and other Northern societies.

Furthermore, it was expected that the economic downturn was likely to have negative consequences for undocumented circular migrants since they are overrepresented in low-skilled occupations that are typically the first victims in times of recession and are not being eligible for welfare and social benefits. Yet, this category of migrants was not as hard hit as was expected. In some cases undocumented migrants even benefited by the crisis because they are preferred by employers as a cheap labour force.

It was also envisaged that the downturn would lead to a decrease of remittances due to dwindling employment rates among migrants. Yet, given that remittances remain relatively resilient, the reduction of remittances flows was overestimated, However, patterns of remitting have changed; migrants are now more reluctant to send money through official channels due to a lack of confidence in the stability of banking systems.

Additionally, although both women and men migrants represent the most vulnerable sector of workers during economic downturn, it was predicted that women might be harder hit as they are even less protected in the labour market than their male colleagues. However, it has turned out that the crisis has affected contracted employees more than it has undocumented labourers (of whom women make up the majority).

These and other factors provide grounds to challenge the “worst-case scenarios” offered by analysts regarding the impact of the global economic recession on migration flows. This thread of the virtual community serves to act as a spring board for further discussion of the topic, initiated by UN-INSTRAW last fall, by focusing on “migration myths and metaphors” which emerged in the heart of the unfolding global economic crisis, but were not supported by later developments in the migration process.

It would be great if the VC members could share information on their respective countries and regions regarding specificities of migration process there during the crises. Since we have representatives of different continents and geographic regions, as well as of a number of inter- and transnational organizations, we could avail of the world-wide representation of our team to have a better vision of the global effects of the economic meltdown on migration and migrants.

The following are questions to stimulate reflection and discussion:

- How did the downturn affect migration patterns, and remittances flows in different regions of the world?
- What were the unpredicted implications of the economic crises for migration in both migrant sending and receiving countries?
- How were immigrants themselves affected and what “anti-crisis” strategies did they develop in response to the challenges of their precarious positions in the labour markets?
- Did the crisis affect a gender dimension of the migration process? Was there any evidence of the impact of gender on changes in remittances flows during the economic downturn?

“Trickle Down Economics” featured in the The Economist in February that may serve as an background reading is available here.

The opinion piece is also a thread in the forum. To add your comments or answer any of the questions please log in and visit the forum.