Date: Thu Aug 24 2006 - 12:25:04 AST
The Economics of Demographics
Finance and Development -- September 2006: Volume 43, Number 3
International Monetary Fund - Washington DC
The Economics of Demographics provides a detailed look at how the biggest
demographic upheaval in history is affecting global development. The issue
explores demographic change and the effects of population aging from a
variety of angles, including pensions, health care, financial markets, and
migration, and looks specifically at the impact in Europe and Asia.
Booms, Busts, and Echoes
David E. Bloom Professor of Economics and Demography , David Canning
Professor of Economics and International Health at the Harvard School of
Public Health.
How the biggest demographic upheaval in history is affecting global
development
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2006/09/bloom.htm
"..For much (and perhaps most) of human history, demographic patterns were
fairly stable: the human population grew slowly, and age structures, birth
rates, and death rates changed very little. The slow long-run growth in
population was interrupted periodically by epidemics and pandemics that
could sharply reduce population numbers, but these events had little bearing
on long-term trends.."
Pension Challenges in an Aging World
Adair Turner
Except where fertility rates are very low, needed pension system adjustments
look manageable. But in all countries, the principle of proportional rises
in pensionable ages is appropriate to cope with increasing longevity, says
Turner, who headed the U.K.'s Pensions Commission.
Investing in the Youth Bulge
Emmanuel Y. Jimenez and Mamta Murthi
With the right investments, developing countries can turn their large youth
populations into a boon. They need to broaden opportunities by improving
education, meeting demands for higher skill levels, easing labor market
entry, and providing better information to students.
Aging and Financial Markets
W. Todd Groome, Nicolas Blancher, and Parmeshwar Ramlogan
The implications of population aging for financial markets are getting
greater attention. The markets can play an important role in the management
of age-related risks, but governments will also need to act as managers of
key long-term risks related to aging.
Gauging the Cost of Aging
John Bryant and Audrey Sonerson
Population aging is not the main cause of rising government health
expenditure in New Zealand, where "non-demographic" factors-such as higher
wages for health workers, rising administrative costs, new treatments, and
better coverage of the population-outweigh demographic expenditure drivers.
Asia: Ready or Not
Peter S. Heller
The challenges faced by the industrial countries in the West and Japan with
the prospective retirement of the baby-boom generation are well recognized.
But less appreciated is the fact that many developing Asian countries face
their own demographic "time bomb."
Global Migration
Jeffrey G. Williamson
Two centuries of mass migration offers insights into the future of global
movements of people. Population aging in the postindustrial part of the
world may increase the demand for immigrant labor, but a growth slowdown in
host countries is likely to offset it.
Can Europe Afford to Grow Old?
Giuseppe Carone and Declan Costello
The European Union must face up to recent projections showing that aging
will have a major economic and budgetary impact affecting labor markets,
economic growth, and public finances. Policymakers need to make adjustments
so that public finances withstand the pressure.
Reform in Europe: What Went Right?
Anthony Annett
Successful reforms in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the United
Kingdom can offer valuable lessons for the rest of the EU. All four
countries adopted winning combinations of fiscal adjustment and labor and
product market reform.
Picture This-> Global Demographic Trends
During the past 50 years, the world's population has increased
dramatically-a trend that is projected to continue.
Most future growth will occur in less developed countries, where the
population is increasing more than five times as fast as that in developed
countries.
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